Mad Anthony's Black Friday stock tips, part 1...

If Black Friday volume is an indicator of store profits, I would say to be long on Circuit City, Best Buy, and Staples and say to short Toys R Us and OfficeMax.

Staples and CC were mobbed - I bought stuff at both stores. I drove past Best Buy but didn't go in - I figured the odds of me finding the one thing I wanted there were slim, and even if I found it I would have to wait an hour to pay for it. The parking lot was that full.

The Staples I went to is right near a Toys R Us. Both open at 6am. TRU looked dead - I ended up parking in their lot because the Staples lot was full. There were more cars by the time I rolled out an hour later, but they might have all been going to Staples. TRU does a huge chunk of their business at Christmas (I worked there one Christmas when I was in high school). If they can't get people there on Black Friday, I can't imagine they will do well.

OfficeMax in the past has had some good deals but horrible customer service. This year, they seem to have kept the horrible customer service but gotten rid of the good deals. I guess they don't want to compete on price, but there is no real reason to shop there except price. If they don't start offering some deals, I think they will have a cold Christmas season.

NOTE: these are just observations and are not to be taken as investment advice. MadAnthony.org assumes no liability for losses acting on this information (but if it turns out to be right and you make money, I expect 10%).