Why I'm not sure I should try too hard to vote on Tuesday...

You will frequently hear people talk about how important it is to vote - how one vote can change elections, and how it's your civic duty, and how if you don't vote you shouldn't complain about the outcome of the elections.

There are probably situations where that is true - if you live somewhere that's a swing state, or in a hotly contested district, or there is some important ballot initiative up this year.

But that's not where I am. I'm a registered Republican - mostly for fiscal reasons - in the very blue state of Maryland. When it comes to presidential elections, it's pretty much guaranteed that a Dem will win. And based on polling in this exciting, non-presidential year, it looks like Dems will win no matter if I show up to the polls or not.

I like FiveThirtyEight.com, which summarizes and analyzes multiple polls to give a pretty accurate picture of what the election will likely be - and despite the many places where things may change, they won't where I am. They are calling for a 95.2% chance of O'Malley remaining governor, a 99.9% chance that Dutch Ruppersberger will win the House in the 2nd district, and a 100% chance that Barb Milkulski will keep her senate seat and keep her important job of fighting against overpriced bagels.

And unlike California, we don't have any cool ballot initiatives, just your usual bond issues and esoteric questions like if Orphan's Court judges should be members of the bar.

Don't get me wrong, I plan on voting on Tuesday - I'm hoping to drag my ass out of bed early and go before work. But if I don't wake up on time, I seriously have to question if it's worth cutting my daily workout at the gym short just to make it to my polling place before it's 8pm close, given the fact that the races are anything but tight.

Despite the traditional platitudes about the importance of voting, there are plenty of elections where it really just isn't that important - where standing in line to cast a vote in an election where the spread is that large is completely irrational, a complete waste of time. Gerrymandering - drawing districts in such a way as to make it likely a given party's candidate will win - means most races just aren't competitive - and if your state is dark red or dark blue, your chance of getting a governor of the opposite side is slim, and since almost every state does electoral college votes on an all-or-nothing basis, if your candidate doesn't win your vote is pretty much meaningless.

To me, voting in many cases is one of those things that people do to feel good about themselves even though it's completely irrational.